On 12 May 2025, the UK government released an Immigration White Paper outlining major changes to the rules around settlement—also known as Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR). These proposed changes could significantly impact how long migrants must live in the UK before becoming eligible for permanent residency.
What’s Changing?
Currently, most migrants on qualifying visas can apply for settlement after five years in the UK. Under the new proposal, this period will be extended to ten years for some migrants. However, the government has not yet confirmed which visa categories will be affected or whether the new rules will apply to people already in the UK or only to new arrivals.
A public consultation is expected later in 2025, which will provide more details and clarify when the changes will take effect.
Key Points
- Around half of all people on temporary visas at the end of 2024 had a potential path to settlement.
- Family members of British citizens will still qualify for settlement after five years. However, this may not apply to the family of permanent residents who are not citizens.
- Some migrants may still qualify for faster settlement if they meet yet-to-be-defined criteria related to contributions to the UK economy or society.
- Migrants covered under the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS)—those who arrived before the end of free movement—will not be affected.
Who Might Be Affected?
The government is expected to target visa categories that currently offer a five-year route to settlement. These likely include:
- Skilled Worker visas and other work-related categories
- Family visas (unless the sponsor is a British citizen)
- BNO visas for Hong Kongers
- Refugee or humanitarian protection status holders
- Investor, business development, and Global Talent visa holders
By contrast, visas that currently do not lead to settlement are not directly affected. These include:
- Study and Graduate visas
- Visas under the Ukraine schemes
- Short-term work visas
- Intra-company transfer routes
However, individuals on these visas may still be impacted if they later switch to a visa that offers a route to settlement.
How Many People Could This Affect?
As of late 2024, around 4 million people were on temporary visas, most having arrived in the past ten years. About 2.1 million (or 53%) had a pathway to settlement.
Breakdown of key visa holders at end of 2024:
- Investor, business, Global Talent visas: 38,000
- Refugees or those with similar status: 207,000
- BNO visa holders: 189,000
- Family visas: 313,000 (with varied eligibility based on family ties)
- Non-settlement routes (e.g. students, graduate workers, Ukraine schemes, short-term workers): 1.7 million
What Will the Impact Be?
If implemented, the UK would become more restrictive than many other high-income countries regarding the path to permanent residence—comparable only to places like Japan and Switzerland.
The change is unlikely to drastically affect overall migration numbers, as research shows the time required to qualify for settlement rarely influences initial migration decisions. However, the financial and social implications could be significant.
1. Increased Costs
Longer settlement routes mean higher fees. For instance, a migrant on a Skilled Worker visa without dependants currently pays around £9,900 over five years to gain ILR. Under the ten-year plan, this could rise to £16,900, primarily due to the extended Immigration Health Surcharge and additional visa extensions.
2. Impact on Integration
Longer waiting times for settlement can:
- Delay access to rights such as job flexibility, public benefits, and citizenship
- Make it harder for migrants to integrate socially and economically
- Prolong migrants’ dependency on employers under tied visa conditions
Research shows that secure immigration status is linked to better job prospects, social engagement, and language learning. Delayed settlement can slow these processes and create additional barriers to integration.
Final Thoughts
The proposed changes to the UK settlement system represent a shift towards a more restrictive immigration policy. While they may bring increased revenue to the government, they could also slow the integration of migrants and create added financial pressure for individuals and families seeking to build a life in the UK. Until further details are confirmed later in 2025, migrants and visa holders should stay informed and prepare for possible adjustments to their long-term plans.
